Medical Demographics in Brazil 2023: The most recent study by USP and the Brazilian Medical Association estimates that the number of doctors could exceed 1.3 million, due to the increasing opening of medical schools.
Do you have any idea how many doctors Brazil has today? If you guessed more than 500,000, you're right. The exact number, according to the updated study "Medical Demographics in Brazil 2023" conducted by the USP Faculty of Medicine and the Brazilian Medical Association (AMB), using the most recent IBGE census data, is 545,767 doctors.
In other words, this means that 2.69 professionals for every 1,000 inhabitants have this profession.
According to the Medical Demographics in Brazil 2023 report, the number of doctors has more than doubled!
Analyzing the eight most recent censuses from IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), the Brazilian population grew by 291% between 1950 and 2022, while the number of doctors increased by 2,301% in the same period.
From 2000 to 2022, we went from 1.41 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants to 2.69 – more than double. In percentage terms, from 2010 to 2022 the medical population grew by 70.3% – that is, an increase of 225,290 professionals. This growth is strongly associated with the expansion of courses and undergraduate places.
How does Brazil compare to the rest of the world?
International comparisons need to be made with caution, due to different methodologies counting realities , and definitions of physicians in each country.
Therefore, if we compare the medical density in Brazil (2.69 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants) to other countries, such as the United States, Japan, Canada, and Chile, we are equivalent. European countries, such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Spain, have a higher density.
However, it is important to remember that, in the Brazilian context, comparing the national rate with that of other nations is quite limited, due to the uneven distribution of doctors among the regions and some characteristics of the health system, which end up generating a greater concentration of professionals in the private sector than in the SUS (Brazilian Public Health System).
How are the regions divided among Brazil, according to medical demography in Brazil?
It can be said that the distribution of doctors in Brazil is relatively uneven. See the numbers by region:
Below the national average:
- Northeast – 2.09 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants
- North – 1.65 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants
Above the national average:
- Southeast – 3.62 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants
- Central-West – 3.28 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants
- South – 3.12 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants
It's also worth mentioning a few highlights:
- Maranhão has the lowest density (1.17 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants);
- The three states with the highest density are the Federal District (6 per 1,000 inhabitants), Rio de Janeiro (4.19) and São Paulo (3.57) – which is also the most populous state;
- There are 19 states than the national average doctors
- There are 7 states with fewer than 2 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants;
- Roraima is the state with the smallest population (636,000) and the sixth with the lowest medical density.
And what about the capital cities and municipalities?
The highest concentration of doctors is found in state capitals.
Vitória, for example, has 18.14 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants, followed by Porto Alegre and Florianópolis, all with more than eight doctors per 1,000 inhabitants.
In contrast, capital cities like Macapá, Boa Vista, and Manaus have fewer than three doctors per 1,000 inhabitants.
As for the municipalities, the numbers are also impressive:
- 69.3% of the country's municipalities have up to 20,000 inhabitants. This combined totals 31.9 million inhabitants – that is, 15.8% of the Brazilian population;
- Of those previously reported 15.8%, there are only 16,700 doctors (2.8% of the country's total professionals);
- 41 cities have more than 500,000 inhabitants (29% of the population) – these locations contain 61.5% of the doctors.
- Through the study, USP and AMP also found that 27% of doctors worked in the city where they lived, but also commuted on some day of the week or shift to work in another location;
- Already, 8% of them always worked in a different municipality from where they lived.
What is the perspective of the experts in this regard?
According to the 2023 Medical Demographics in Brazil report, there are 1.58 medical specialists per 1,000 inhabitants in Brazil. In some specialties, such as surgery and anesthesiology, the disparity is even more pronounced between different states. See the numbers:
- Anesthesiology: in Maranhão (4.40 per 100,000) the rate is 5 times lower than in Rio de Janeiro (22.54 per 100,000).
- Surgery: in Pará (10.46 per 100,000) is 6 times lower than in the Federal District (60.84 per 100,000)
Furthermore, another important average is that of Family and Community Medicine – one of the specializations within Primary Care services. It stands at only 5.54 per 100,000 inhabitants, with 15 states below this number.
The large disparity between medical school graduates and residency positions
The significant increase in the number of medical courses in recent years has impacted medical demographics. In 2021, there were 224,148 students enrolled in 365 medical schools. States such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais concentrate 44% of these students.
However, most of the new job openings are in capital cities, which can lead to an oversupply of doctors in large urban centers, as has been seen previously.
One of the biggest challenges after graduation is securing a residency position in medicine, which is part of the pursuit of specialization. Competition for these positions is intense, especially in the most sought-after specialties.
For this reason, the applicant-to-vacancy ratio in their programs can be extremely high, causing many newly graduated doctors to face difficulties in specializing through this path.
To give you an idea, in 2021, considering 1,000 inhabitants, the number of undergraduate was 1.05 students, compared to 0.21 places for residency.
Regarding the available positions, the numbers are increasingly challenging. Despite a 57% increase in the number of positions offered from 2015 to 2023 (from 29,696 to 46,610), considering physicians enrolled in R1 to R6 programs, the availability for first-year residency (R1) has not been sufficient to keep pace with the increase in graduating physicians.
Furthermore, the locations remain the same – São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Rio Grande do Sul together account for more than 60% of the job openings.
But what are the alternatives to residency?
Given this high level of competition, alternatives newly graduated doctors have been considering
This is because some seek job opportunities in areas lacking specialists, where the demand for doctors may be high and working conditions favorable.
Others opt for specialization courses postgraduate, such as specializations and MBAs in specific areas of healthcare. These programs are a great advantage for doctors who want to expand their knowledge and improve their skills without having to stop practicing medicine while doing so. In addition to providing greater security and updates on new procedures and medications, this path also brings a increase in income.
Two of the biggest advantages of this model compared to medical residency are:
1. Not having to deal with high competition and few residency positions, which imply an arduous and lengthy to begin studies to become a specialist;
2. The ease with which reconcile postgraduate courses online, hybrid , or with flexible schedules.
To become an officially recognized specialist through postgraduate studies, a doctor simply needs to pass the Certification Exam, organized by the institute of the specialty of interest, and be approved.
What does the Medical Demographics in Brazil 2023 predict might happen in the future?
According to the Medical Demographics in Brazil 2023 report, projections indicate that Brazil could have between 1 and 1.3 million doctors by 2035.
In the most conservative scenario, with the current rate of new medical school openings, the country will have 1.041 million doctors. In the most expansive scenario, if all the proposed new places are approved, this number could reach 1.362 million.
It can be concluded that the new medical demographics in Brazil show significant growth, but also highlight substantial challenges in the distribution of doctors and specialists across the country.
Therefore, alternatives for specialization, such as medical postgraduate studies, can be a crucial for the balanced development of healthcare in Brazil – as well as for the individual evolution of doctors seeking success.
Now that you know the current landscape of the medical career, learn more about postgraduate programs Mandic's course for you.
